In mid-May 2026, Ukrainian forces clawed back more territory from Russian troops than they lost — for the second time this year, according to battlefield monitoring groups.
The Institute for the Study of War’s data, as analysed by Russia Matters, shows Russia lost a net 29 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the week of 12–19 May, following a 12 square mile loss the previous week. The Economist’s estimate, using a slightly different methodology, puts Ukraine’s territorial gain in the 30 days to 19 May at 79 square miles (204 square kilometres).
The gains are incremental and far from a tipping point. Russia still occupies roughly a fifth of Ukraine. But the rate of Russian advance has halved in the past three months, and analysts say the shift is real.
On 15 May, Ukrainian forces captured Odradne, a village in the Kharkiv region north of Kupyansk, according to both Ukrainian and Russian war bloggers. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi had reported in March that Ukrainian units recaptured more territory in February 2026 than Russia took in the same period — the first such reversal since the counteroffensives of late 2022.
The shift appears driven by a combination of factors: improved Ukrainian drone production and logistics, thinning Russian defensive lines in the northeast, and continued European materiel supply. President Zelenskyy has concluded agreements with several Gulf states to export Ukrainian drone know-how in return for joint production support. Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhaylo Fedorov stated in April that the goal is to inflict losses faster than Russia can recruit replacements — approximately 35,000 troops per month.
Russia has not publicly acknowledged losses of this scale. The Dutch military intelligence agency, in its annual report released in April, estimates Russian deaths exceed 500,000, with permanent losses (dead and seriously wounded) at 1.2 million.
— Sources: Institute for the Study of War, The Economist, Russia Matters, Al Jazeera, Radio Free Europe