The Houthi campaign of attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea began in late 2023. Two and a half years later, it has fundamentally restructured global maritime logistics. Approximately 40 percent of container traffic that would normally pass through the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab Strait is now routed around the Cape of Good Hope — adding 10 to 14 days of transit time, significant fuel cost, and elevated crew exposure for vessels that cannot afford the risk premium.
The economic effects have moved from disruption to structural. Insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden remain at historic highs and are unlikely to revert. Asia-to-Europe shipping rates have settled at 30 to 40 percent above pre-conflict levels. Several major container lines have permanently restructured routing networks around Cape Town and Walvis Bay rather than treating the rerouting as temporary.
The Iran-US ceasefire in April 2026, mediated by Pakistan, has not extended to the Houthi front. Yemen’s complex political situation — with the Houthis controlling the north and the internationally recognised government holding the south — remains unresolved. The Houthis have indicated willingness to halt attacks in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza, but the linkage has not produced a durable settlement.
For the African Cape route, the disruption has been a quiet windfall. South African ports — particularly Cape Town and Durban — have seen calls increase substantially. Namibia’s Walvis Bay is positioning itself as a refuelling hub for the new traffic pattern. Communities along the East African coast that have lived with limited connection to global trade for decades are seeing maritime infrastructure investment for the first time in a generation.
The Red Sea will probably reopen one day. The maritime patterns that have replaced it may not fully revert when it does.
— Sources: International Chamber of Shipping, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, Reuters, World Shipping Council