Reporting on hurricane seasons usually means reporting on the Atlantic basin — a curious geographic narrowness given that the Eastern Pacific and the Western Pacific basins each produce more tropical cyclones in a typical year than the Atlantic does.
The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season — which begins 15 May, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic — is forecast by Mexico’s National Meteorological Service to produce 18 to 21 named storms, 9 to 11 hurricanes, and 4 to 5 major hurricanes. This is well above the long-term average of 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. It is the SMN’s first April-issued forecast since 2015. The driving factor is the same one suppressing Atlantic activity: a strong El Niño event expected to develop through summer 2026. In the Eastern Pacific, warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and reduced vertical wind shear favour storm formation rather than suppress it.
In the Western Pacific — the world’s most active basin for tropical cyclones, where typhoons strike the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan, and the coast of China — the 2026 season is already underway. Five tropical depressions have formed since January. Four became named storms. One reached super typhoon status. As of mid-May, the basin’s accumulated activity remains modest, but the National Climate Center of China has forecast above-average summer activity, with particular landfall risk for the southeastern and southern coasts of China during the second half of the season.
For coastal communities across Mexico, Central America, the Philippines, China, Japan, and the Pacific island nations, what this means is straightforward: the season ahead is unlikely to be quiet. Communities should be preparing now — not in August, when the peak begins to build.
The asymmetry is the story. The Atlantic gets less. The Pacific gets more. Same climate driver. Different consequences depending on which side of which continent you live on.
— Sources: Mexico Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, China National Climate Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Japan Meteorological Agency, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration