The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June. On 22 May, NOAA released its official 2026 outlook: 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). A typical season produces 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA puts the probability of a below-normal season at 55 percent, near-normal at 35 percent, and above-normal at 10 percent.

Colorado State University’s seasonal forecast, issued in April and widely respected in the field (CSU pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasting in 1984), reached the same conclusion through different methodology: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major. CSU’s lead forecaster, Phil Klotzbach, notes that the 2026 season’s preconditions resemble those of 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 — all relatively quiet seasons in which significant landfalling storms still occurred.

The single dominant factor in both forecasts is El Niño. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now estimates an 82 percent chance El Niño emerges by July. El Niño produces stronger upper-level winds across the tropical Atlantic, which shear apart developing storms before they can organise. Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain slightly above average, which would normally favour storm formation, but the shear effect is forecast to dominate.

For coastal communities along the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern seaboard of the United States, the Caribbean, and Central America, this is welcome news in aggregate. CSU’s forecast puts the chance of a landfalling hurricane along the Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle to Brownsville) at 20 percent, below the long-term average of 27 percent.

But the caveat that every forecaster repeated this week is the one worth remembering: “It only takes one storm.” Some of the worst hurricane impacts on the United States have come in statistically quiet years. Andrew in 1992 was a below-average season. The 1992 season produced only six named storms. Andrew was Category 5 and remains one of the costliest US hurricane landfalls in history.

The forecast is a probability distribution. The storm that hits your town is a single event.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs 1 June to 30 November.

— Sources: NOAA National Weather Service, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science, FOX Weather, CBS News